For anyone who has wondered what a spaghetti model looks like, here's one. We've highlighted the National Hurricane Center Forecast track.

For anyone who has wondered what a spaghetti model looks like, here’s one. We’ve highlighted the National Hurricane Center Forecast track.

It’s still too early to tell exactly what the effects of Hurricane Isaias will be on the Outer Banks. We will feel some effects but exactly how intense the storm will be is still somewhat unclear.

There is a growing consensus in looking at the various storm track and wind models that if we do experience a tropical system, the winds will be tropical storm force winds—perhaps around 50 mph. That’s still a powerful storm but for those of us who have experienced it, there’s a noticeable difference between a 50 and 80 mph wind.

Of course we don’t know if that is going to be the case yet. It is possible that we’ll simply have a rainy day with some wind but nothing exceptional.

It seems like a minor shift, but the consensus in where Isaias will go as she track through North Carolina has edged slightly to the west. That may be why we are seeing some of the local forecasts for wind and rain easing a bit. Hurricanes need warm water to either strengthen or maintain their strength.

Although the latest track may lessen the impact on the Outer Banks, precautionary steps are already being taken. Ocracoke at the southern tip of the Outer Banks has a mandatory evacuation in place for visitors.

We should also note that there is complete agreement that by the time Isaias reaches North Carolina, it will be moving very fast. Late Monday into Tuesday morning is the forecast timeframe.

The decision by Hyde County Emergency Management makes sense. The only way on or off the island is by ferry. Compounding the problem, shoaling has reduced the number of trips that can be made between Ocracoke and Swan Quarter and Cherry Point. That means a much heavier burden on the Hatteras/Ocracoke ferry.

The last update we have from Dare County Emergency Management is that they are monitoring the storm.

Brindley Beach Vacations has been a part of Outer Banks life for over 35 years. Tropical storms are something we’ve learned to deal with over the year. When Isaias passes, we’ll still be here.