Tropical Storm Isaias predicted track, 11:00 p.m. National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Isaias predicted track, 11:00 p.m. National Hurricane Center.

We were originally hoping to write about some of the new things that are happening on the Outer Banks, but then life got in the way.

In this case, life in the form of Tropical Storm Isaias.

The storm is still a couple of days away, but track is bringing it to the Outer Banks on Monday.

Having gone through this process a number of times, we can honestly say we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen but we do know we’ll be feeling some of its effects.

A couple of things to note.

What to Expect

This is a bit early in the season for a tropical system to be effecting the Outer Banks. That being said, there does seem to be consensus on the storm track bringing it to the Outer Banks on Monday.

There is also consensus that it will be either a minimal hurricane or powerful tropical system as it passes the Outer Banks. The winds will probably be around 70-75 mph and there is going to be a lot of rain.

We do need rain—it’s been extremely dry—although 5”-6” over a 12 hour period is not the best way to make up the deficit.

Perhaps a mixed blessing because it is a tropical system, but all of the predictive models indicate Isaias is going to me moving very rapidly out to sea by the time it gets here.

Something to keep in mind about tropical systems is they are fairly compact. The storm tracks that the National Hurricane Center issue are excellent indicators of where the storm is going. However, a 50 or 60 mile wiggle east or west will dramatically change the effects of the storm.

Best case scenario, is that it wiggles 50 or 60 miles out to sea. We get a lot of wind and a lot of rain, but not quite the power of the storm if it passes over us.

If Isaias does head inland, the Outer Banks will probably be spared the worst of it, but the storm will wreak havoc over the state’s coastal plain.